In 1946, economists Arthur Burns and Wesley Mitchell provided a formal definition of business cycles. I asked AI to create an image in the style of Salvador Dali's Persistence of Memory featuring the letters "RHT" and this is what I got. Their conceptualization is extensive but one of the most important elements is the idea that cycles are "recurrent but not periodic." In other words, fluctuations happen over and over again, but they do not follow a regular pattern. In the world of horology, recurrent but non-periodic processes are familiar and a great challenge when it comes to tracking the passage of months and years (as well as other events like Easter). The end of a month recurs twelve times each year, but the length of a month is not always the same (and leap years mean that February has an extra day every four years, I'd rather not even begin to talk about leap seconds). The past two years provide compelling evidence that the watch industry als...
Economic complications in watchmaking